XRP Faces Structural Risk as 41.5% of Supply Sits Underwater Ahead of New ETF Wave

The cryptocurrency XRP — the native token of the Ripple Labs-backed ledger — finds itself navigating a uniquely precarious position. On-chain data reveals that approximately 41.5 % of the total circulating XRP supply, estimated at around 26.5 billion tokens, now sit in loss — meaning holders bought at a price above the current market value.

This marks the lowest profitability ratio for XRP since November 2024, when it traded near the US $ 0.53 mark — a staggering contrast given today’s roughly four-fold higher price. 

Why this matters

When a large portion of holders are sitting on losses, the risk of capitulation rises: investors feeling pain may sell to stop mounting losses, which can accelerate downward moves. Market-analysis firm Glassnode flagged that the current setup is a sign of a “structurally fragile” market, dominated by late buyers.

At the same time, XRP is at a potential inflection point: a wave of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is set to launch in the U.S. This would enable broader institutional access to XRP, potentially tilting demand upward. For instance, the first such ETF by Canary Capital launched on November 13 2025 and posted impressive initial flows. 

The dual scenario

• Bearish view: If holdings remain underwater and holders begin to sell en masse, the pressure may become self-reinforcing, triggering a deeper correction.
• Bullish view: Institutional inflows from ETF products might absorb supply, shift sentiment, and reduce the “loss bucket” over time — potentially setting the stage for a stronger base.

Key numbers & levels

• ~58.5 % of circulating supply is currently in profit — the lowest since November 2024.
• Token price: roughly $2.10–$2.20 range at time of writing.
• Critical technical level: approximately $2.20, which previously acted as resistance and is now being closely watched.

What to watch

• ETF inflows: How much capital flows into the new spot-XRP ETFs and how fast — strong flows may counterbalance sentiment risks.
• On-chain metrics: Whether the share of underwater supply begins to shrink, and whether large holders begin to exit.
• Price action around key levels: Failure to hold ~$2.20 could trigger increased downside; reclaiming it may bolster confidence.

Final view

XRP currently faces a precarious path. With nearly half of its supply in loss and a looming wave of institutional ETF products, the market is at a crossroads. The outcome may hinge on whether new demand can offset the latent selling pressure from underwater holders. For traders and investors, this means the next few weeks could be pivotal.